{
  "slate_date": "2026-10-29",
  "report_generated_at": "2026-10-30T05:24:10.777762+00:00",
  "date_context": "October 30 games are upcoming; this evaluates the October 29 slate that just finished.",
  "publication_commit": "4e8037289449f0bfac0c2c69878e0cc37e38dd23",
  "archive_sha256": "d8e4a2fe0f272ea809f01ef60c0217d1b411fc1d149f0098e6ac89baa9f6ccfe",
  "games_final": 11,
  "games_expected": 11,
  "primary_selection": "latest eligible pregame",
  "first_latest_different_games": 0,
  "model_families": [
    "goalie-v2-unified"
  ],
  "goalie_input_status_counts": {
    "estimated": 22
  },
  "latest": {
    "probabilities": {
      "5.5": {
        "n": 11,
        "actual_under": 4,
        "actual_push": 0,
        "actual_over": 7,
        "mean_p_under": 0.4207611820727195,
        "mean_p_push": 0.0,
        "mean_p_over": 0.5792388179272804,
        "observed_over_rate": 0.6363636363636364,
        "over_rate_wilson95": [
          0.35380117450784887,
          0.8483352890463243
        ],
        "categorical_brier_sum": 0.46992919405725053,
        "categorical_logloss": 0.662145960941169,
        "binary_brier": 0.23496459702862527,
        "binary_logloss": 0.662145960941169,
        "reference50_brier": 0.25,
        "reference50_logloss": 0.6931471805599453,
        "direction_correct": 7,
        "direction_n": 11,
        "p_over_min": 0.5106096955138026,
        "p_over_max": 0.6593867694463632
      },
      "6": {
        "n": 11,
        "actual_under": 4,
        "actual_push": 0,
        "actual_over": 7,
        "mean_p_under": 0.4207611820727195,
        "mean_p_push": 0.15904912463431223,
        "mean_p_over": 0.4201896932929682,
        "observed_over_rate": 0.6363636363636364,
        "over_rate_wilson95": [
          0.35380117450784887,
          0.8483352890463243
        ],
        "categorical_brier_sum": 0.538340163782983,
        "categorical_logloss": 0.8680270765493635,
        "direction_correct_excluding_push": 5,
        "direction_n_excluding_push": 11
      },
      "6.5": {
        "n": 11,
        "actual_under": 4,
        "actual_push": 0,
        "actual_over": 7,
        "mean_p_under": 0.5798103067070317,
        "mean_p_push": 0.0,
        "mean_p_over": 0.4201896932929682,
        "observed_over_rate": 0.6363636363636364,
        "over_rate_wilson95": [
          0.35380117450784887,
          0.8483352890463243
        ],
        "categorical_brier_sum": 0.5561502517493317,
        "categorical_logloss": 0.7511210227341244,
        "binary_brier": 0.2780751258746659,
        "binary_logloss": 0.7511210227341244,
        "reference50_brier": 0.25,
        "reference50_logloss": 0.6931471805599453,
        "direction_correct": 5,
        "direction_n": 11,
        "p_over_min": 0.35096396888662895,
        "p_over_max": 0.5047433577509625
      },
      "7": {
        "n": 11,
        "actual_under": 4,
        "actual_push": 4,
        "actual_over": 3,
        "mean_p_under": 0.5798103067070317,
        "mean_p_push": 0.14004140272755491,
        "mean_p_over": 0.2801482905654133,
        "observed_over_rate": 0.2727272727272727,
        "over_rate_wilson95": [
          0.09746059290024889,
          0.5656453011761291
        ],
        "categorical_brier_sum": 0.7553474498045553,
        "categorical_logloss": 1.2567880756370153,
        "direction_correct_excluding_push": 4,
        "direction_n_excluding_push": 7
      }
    },
    "calibration": [
      {
        "line": 5.5,
        "bin_lo": 0.4,
        "bin_hi": 0.6000000000000001,
        "n": 8,
        "mean_predicted": 0.5546327008596271,
        "observed": 0.625,
        "observed_wilson95": [
          0.30574239460262737,
          0.8631557141764026
        ]
      },
      {
        "line": 5.5,
        "bin_lo": 0.6000000000000001,
        "bin_hi": 0.8,
        "n": 3,
        "mean_predicted": 0.6448551301076891,
        "observed": 0.6666666666666666,
        "observed_wilson95": [
          0.2076596008020477,
          0.9385080552796037
        ]
      },
      {
        "line": 6.5,
        "bin_lo": 0.2,
        "bin_hi": 0.4,
        "n": 4,
        "mean_predicted": 0.36848907415422916,
        "observed": 0.5,
        "observed_wilson95": [
          0.15003898915214947,
          0.8499610108478506
        ]
      },
      {
        "line": 6.5,
        "bin_lo": 0.4,
        "bin_hi": 0.6000000000000001,
        "n": 7,
        "mean_predicted": 0.44973290422939044,
        "observed": 0.7142857142857143,
        "observed_wilson95": [
          0.35893445183261935,
          0.9177810759959433
        ]
      }
    ],
    "goals": {
      "n": 11,
      "mean_predicted": 6.166541233752966,
      "mean_actual": 7.454545454545454,
      "total_mae": 2.119966328873052,
      "total_rmse": 2.864982693082866,
      "total_bias_pred_minus_actual": -1.2880042207924887,
      "team_mae": 1.3992475344329895,
      "count_logloss": 2.4447440323931753
    }
  },
  "first": {
    "probabilities": {
      "5.5": {
        "n": 11,
        "actual_under": 4,
        "actual_push": 0,
        "actual_over": 7,
        "mean_p_under": 0.4207611820727195,
        "mean_p_push": 0.0,
        "mean_p_over": 0.5792388179272804,
        "observed_over_rate": 0.6363636363636364,
        "over_rate_wilson95": [
          0.35380117450784887,
          0.8483352890463243
        ],
        "categorical_brier_sum": 0.46992919405725053,
        "categorical_logloss": 0.662145960941169,
        "binary_brier": 0.23496459702862527,
        "binary_logloss": 0.662145960941169,
        "reference50_brier": 0.25,
        "reference50_logloss": 0.6931471805599453,
        "direction_correct": 7,
        "direction_n": 11,
        "p_over_min": 0.5106096955138026,
        "p_over_max": 0.6593867694463632
      },
      "6": {
        "n": 11,
        "actual_under": 4,
        "actual_push": 0,
        "actual_over": 7,
        "mean_p_under": 0.4207611820727195,
        "mean_p_push": 0.15904912463431223,
        "mean_p_over": 0.4201896932929682,
        "observed_over_rate": 0.6363636363636364,
        "over_rate_wilson95": [
          0.35380117450784887,
          0.8483352890463243
        ],
        "categorical_brier_sum": 0.538340163782983,
        "categorical_logloss": 0.8680270765493635,
        "direction_correct_excluding_push": 5,
        "direction_n_excluding_push": 11
      },
      "6.5": {
        "n": 11,
        "actual_under": 4,
        "actual_push": 0,
        "actual_over": 7,
        "mean_p_under": 0.5798103067070317,
        "mean_p_push": 0.0,
        "mean_p_over": 0.4201896932929682,
        "observed_over_rate": 0.6363636363636364,
        "over_rate_wilson95": [
          0.35380117450784887,
          0.8483352890463243
        ],
        "categorical_brier_sum": 0.5561502517493317,
        "categorical_logloss": 0.7511210227341244,
        "binary_brier": 0.2780751258746659,
        "binary_logloss": 0.7511210227341244,
        "reference50_brier": 0.25,
        "reference50_logloss": 0.6931471805599453,
        "direction_correct": 5,
        "direction_n": 11,
        "p_over_min": 0.35096396888662895,
        "p_over_max": 0.5047433577509625
      },
      "7": {
        "n": 11,
        "actual_under": 4,
        "actual_push": 4,
        "actual_over": 3,
        "mean_p_under": 0.5798103067070317,
        "mean_p_push": 0.14004140272755491,
        "mean_p_over": 0.2801482905654133,
        "observed_over_rate": 0.2727272727272727,
        "over_rate_wilson95": [
          0.09746059290024889,
          0.5656453011761291
        ],
        "categorical_brier_sum": 0.7553474498045553,
        "categorical_logloss": 1.2567880756370153,
        "direction_correct_excluding_push": 4,
        "direction_n_excluding_push": 7
      }
    },
    "calibration": [
      {
        "line": 5.5,
        "bin_lo": 0.4,
        "bin_hi": 0.6000000000000001,
        "n": 8,
        "mean_predicted": 0.5546327008596271,
        "observed": 0.625,
        "observed_wilson95": [
          0.30574239460262737,
          0.8631557141764026
        ]
      },
      {
        "line": 5.5,
        "bin_lo": 0.6000000000000001,
        "bin_hi": 0.8,
        "n": 3,
        "mean_predicted": 0.6448551301076891,
        "observed": 0.6666666666666666,
        "observed_wilson95": [
          0.2076596008020477,
          0.9385080552796037
        ]
      },
      {
        "line": 6.5,
        "bin_lo": 0.2,
        "bin_hi": 0.4,
        "n": 4,
        "mean_predicted": 0.36848907415422916,
        "observed": 0.5,
        "observed_wilson95": [
          0.15003898915214947,
          0.8499610108478506
        ]
      },
      {
        "line": 6.5,
        "bin_lo": 0.4,
        "bin_hi": 0.6000000000000001,
        "n": 7,
        "mean_predicted": 0.44973290422939044,
        "observed": 0.7142857142857143,
        "observed_wilson95": [
          0.35893445183261935,
          0.9177810759959433
        ]
      }
    ],
    "goals": {
      "n": 11,
      "mean_predicted": 6.166541233752966,
      "mean_actual": 7.454545454545454,
      "total_mae": 2.119966328873052,
      "total_rmse": 2.864982693082866,
      "total_bias_pred_minus_actual": -1.2880042207924887,
      "team_mae": 1.3992475344329895,
      "count_logloss": 2.4447440323931753
    }
  },
  "methodology": {
    "forecasts": "Original archived probabilities only; no postgame forecast regeneration or parameter fitting.",
    "target": "Official final goals including OT and shootout winner bonus.",
    "half_goal_scoring": "Binary Over Brier and log-loss, natural logs; zero pushes.",
    "integer_scoring": "Under/Push/Over three-class Brier (sum of squared class errors, range 0..2) and categorical log-loss; pushes are not counted as losses.",
    "benchmarks": "Fixed 50% Over reference only for half-goal lines; not fitted using outcomes.",
    "calibration": "Five fixed probability bins; Wilson intervals describe observed rate uncertainty.",
    "limits": "11 games cannot establish season-level calibration or betting profitability. Fixed thresholds are not necessarily closing sportsbook lines."
  }
}